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Statistical RethinkingStatistical Rethinking

7.5 Summary

Chapter 7 in review

Chapter 7 introduced interactions — the way that the effect of one predictor depends on the value of another. Interactions are essential for capturing context-dependent effects.

We covered:

  1. Building an interaction (Section 7.1): The interaction term β3xizi\beta_3 x_i z_i allows the slope of xx to depend on zz. Interactions should be included when theory demands them.

  2. Symmetry (Section 7.2): Interactions are symmetric — the effect of xx depends on zz and vice versa. The same coefficient governs both perspectives.

  3. Continuous interactions (Section 7.3): When both predictors are continuous, the interaction creates a twisted plane. Centering and plotting predictions are essential for interpretation.

  4. Design formulas (Section 7.4): R's * operator includes main effects and interaction; : includes only the interaction. The formula is an interface, not the model.

Key lessons

  • Interactions allow the effect of one variable to depend on another.
  • The slope of xx is βx+βxzz\beta_x + \beta_{xz} z — it varies with zz.
  • Interactions are symmetric: both variables moderate each other.
  • Center predictors and plot predictions to interpret continuous interactions.
  • Include interactions when theory demands them, not just when they are significant.
Rethinking

Interactions are the gateway to complexity. Until now, our models assumed that each predictor has a constant effect. Interactions break this assumption, allowing the model to capture the reality that effects depend on context. This is the gateway to more complex models — multilevel models (Chapter 12) allow interactions at the group level, and generalized linear models (Chapter 9) allow interactions with the link function. The key lesson is: if your theory says the effect depends on context, you must model that dependence. The golem will not do it for you.